Will New Tariffs Cause Food Prices to Spike Again?

No, it’s not just you: food prices have gone up. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), food prices have risen almost 3% in the last year. In 2022, food prices rose nearly 10% — the highest single-year increase since 1979. Since 2020, food costs have increased by more than 25%. It feels hard because it is hard.

Food prices can strain budgets beyond regular growing pains. But what’s causing the recent rise in food costs? Some grocery executives blame the new tariffs, while others point fingers at those same executives, accusing them of “greedflation.” 

Small changes to your food budget can make a big difference. WorkMoney highlights what’s triggering the new food price spikes and how you can manage the financial changes.

Are tariffs triggering the recent spike in food prices?

Yes, tariffs are part of why food prices are on the rise lately. But they aren’t the only reason.

Grocery store executives admit that the current administration’s new tariff policy has caused grocery chains to pay a higher price for the same goods imported from other countries. In turn, those stores are passing that charge onto the consumer. 

The CPI reports that everyday items like meat, poultry, fish, and dairy are up more than 5% in the last year. A Washington Post story found a seller for a large deli producer who admitted that price hikes used to happen annually. Now they’re going up every week. 

How much you spend on groceries depends a lot on where you live and who you’re buying for. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the CPI, the average monthly grocery bill was $252 in July 2021. As of July 2025, folks are paying nearly $313 a month. It’s no surprise that consumers are seeing their grocery bills rise, even though they aren’t buying more.

Tariffs and Other Drivers of Food Price Inflation

Tariffs are part of why you’re seeing the food cost increase. But it’s not the only reason. Other reasons for increasing food prices include:

• The supply chain. When supply chain disruptions happen, they ripple through the entire economy. Right now, cattle volumes are at their lowest point since 1951.

• Weather and climate change. Long droughts can impact cattle herds, lowering the total output from farmers and suppliers. With less supply, the cost of goods goes up.

• Greedflation. While grocery store executives blame the administration, they aren’t without fault. Greedflation is when corporations exploit inflation to boost their profits higher than they already are. 

• Market concentration. As farmers, suppliers, and retailers consolidate, get acquired, or possibly shut down, that leaves a select few dominant party players to influence food prices. Less competition means a small minority determines prices and costs to maximize profits.

• Larger economic factors. Everything from higher energy and labor costs to federal policy plays a part in increasing food costs.

While tariffs influence the food prices, they may not be the only reason for the recent increases. Many factors — like a limited supply chain, the weather, and greedflation — contribute to rising food costs.

Smart Shopping Tips for the New Food Price Spikes

It’s normal for the cost of goods to rise, including food. But with larger-than-average increases, we need to make smart, impactful shopping decisions about our food.

Make a Plan

Your budget is your guide for how much you can spend on food. Use that to strategically plan out your grocery list.

1. Shop your kitchen first. Go through what you have in your fridge, freezer, and pantry to see what you can make before loading up on new items.

2. Stick to your budget. If you have a set amount of money you need to spend every week or month on groceries, try to stick to it. 

3. Shop the sales. Check the weekly circular ad before heading into the store to see what you can get this week.

4. Meal prep. Have a loose idea of meals you want to make based on what’s on sale at your local grocery store. 

5. Grab other brands. Swap name-brand items for store-brand ones or even for lesser-known brands on sale. Check the ingredient list to see if they match up so you know you’re getting a similar product.

Tap Into Government Resources

The government has indeed gone after federal resources like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Both are lifelines to families, providing necessities like supplementing food costs and healthy nutrition options.

Regardless of the recent attacks on these programs, you can still complete a SNAP application to see if you’re eligible for assistance. To apply for WIC, you’ll need to contact your local WIC agency to schedule an appointment.

Find Alternative Food Distribution Options

There are state and local food aid programs that offer emergency funds to cover additional food costs. These programs vary widely by where you live, so search online to see what’s available in your area. 

For instance, look for food pantries and organizations that give food to those in need. In some cases, you may not need to provide any financial information to these organizations; they give out food to those who show up in need of it.

You can also use apps and services like Propel, which help you check your EBT balance, find benefits, and discover discounts near you. Lulo is another app that helps WIC-qualifying families understand and maximize their benefits.

The Bottom Line

Food prices aren’t expected to go down anytime soon. In fact, prices will probably continue to go up throughout the rest of the year and well into 2026. You can’t escape the changes, but you can plan for them.

Creating a shopping system that works for your family’s needs and budget is one way to beat the rising cost of food. But you have other resources, if you need them. Don’t be afraid to use government resources, like SNAP and WIC, if you need them and qualify for those programs. Government assistance could be what you need to get or stay on the right track.